Bracket Update: Where Do All The Bracketologists Have UC

After yesterday's 53-49 loss to Central Florida some Bearcat fans were very angry and expressed their views on Twitter on Sunday Night.  Fortunately, the Bracketologist didn't freak out as much as the fans did, and neither did the AP Voters, who dropped UC just 3 spots to #18.  Here is how some of the big time bracketologists moved the Bearcats after their loss to UCF.  These were all updated on Monday morning.

Shelby Mast, USA Today (Bracketwag.com)
Bearcats Seed: #5 Seed Playing In San Jose against UNC Wilmington
When asked on Twitter before the UCF game how close the Bearcats were to the 4 seed, Shelby said they were along way away and he currently had them as his final 5 seed.  However, even after the loss Shelby opted to keep UC as a 5 and explained his move saying, "Cincinnati lost at UCF but don't fall, yet. They are close to the 6 line, but for me not sure if any of the 6 seeds warrant the 5 line yet."


Joe Lunardi, ESPN.com
Bearcats Seed: #5 Seed Playing In Milwaukee against Nevada
Joe too had been hard on UC and said it would have tough for them to get more than a #4 seed, but he didn't move Cincinnati as he kept them on the 5 line.


BracketMatrix.com
Bearcats Seed: #5
For those of you that do not know, Bracket Matrix is an average of all the top 113 bracketologists combined and the Bearcats average out at a #5 seed.  Their high is a 4 seed in a lot of brackets and their low is a 7 seed.  Most have them on the 5/6 line. 


So no, the sky is not falling.  The Bearcats still have another game against Houston to get another top 100 RPI win and probably two more chances in the AAC Tournament.  So I think they would probably get a 4 seed of their win to their remaining regular season games and win the AAC tournament.  Too all the fans freaking out about last nights game, CALM DOWN. I had one fan in my twitter mentions telling me that UC is a 10 seed and on the bubble, PLEASE.


Also CBSsports.com wasn't updated, but UC was a 4 seed so I am going to guess they dropped on line.  It's not the end of the world, but it would be nice to get some momentum going into the tournament and that starts by beating Houston on Thursday.

American Conference Coaches Power Rankings

10. Jeff Lebo (East Carolina): Without a doubt in my mind Lebo is the worst coach in the AAC. Pirate fans want him gone.  Lebo has only had 2 winning seasons in his 7th year as head coach.  He has never made the NCAA Tournament or even the NIT.  The most success he had was winning the CIT in his first year.  Lebo is currently out right now as he recovers from hip surgery. ECU's interim is Michael Perry.


9. Mike Dunleavy Sr. (Tulane): I think that Dunleavy could be a great coach, but this is his first year and his team sits at 5-22 so you really can't put him any hire on this list. You can't blame Dunleavy this because he did not recruit any of these players. I mean you could put Michael Jordan on this team and they still wouldn't win 10 games.  This team has hung around in a lot of games and I think that is due to Dunleavy's coaching ability. Give him a couple of years.


8. Frank Haith (Tulsa): I think Haith is way overrated.  He did get to the tournament last year, but that was in the play in game and Tulsa didn't even deserve to get in.  He had some good, but not great teams at Missouri because he cheated. Missouri could not go to the postseason last year because of violations when he was the coach.


7. Johnny Dawkins (UCF): At this point basically all these coaches are solid.  Dawkins coached at Stanford for 8 years and only made the Tournament once, but they did go on a big run to the sweet 16.  Central Florida is a lot better this year then expected with Dawkins.  I think this was a pretty good hire from UCF this past year and the Knights should be on the rise here soon.


6. Tim Jankovich (SMU):  Look Jankovich will win AAC Coach of the Year this year and rightfully so, but we really don't know how good of a coach he is.  He still has all of Larry Brown's players so you can't base him off this year. He was the coach for 9 years at North Texas and Illinois State and never made the tournament once.


5. Kelvin Sampson (Houston):  Sampson is always trying to fire up his players.  He gets a lot of talent out of his players, but in reality they should of made the tournament this year and unless they win the conference tournament that won't happen.  Sampson is a solid coach, but you can't ignore his NCAA violations at Indiana.  Sampson all around just a good coach, but a little too intense at times.  Houston will enjoy some success under him I think. 


4. Kevin Ollie (UConn): Here is a classic example of a coach getting way too much praise simply because he has a ring.  I get it, they have had injuries this year, but this was a healthy top 20 team when they lost to Northeastern and Wagner.  Ollie has done a nice job getting this team to not quit as they currently sit 4th in the AAC, but he is not the best coach in the conference like some Huskie fans think.


3. Tubby Smith:

Bearcats Thoughts: UC Downs Memphis

The Bearcats scored 51 points in the first half as they increased their home winning streak 25 on Thursday night in an 87-74 win over Memphis.


The first half was very fun. 


UC shot 58 percent from the field in the first half as they were firing on all cylinders.  I personally thought it was their best half of basketball of the year except the 2nd half of the Xavier game.  The Bearcats had just 3 turnovers in the first half and shot 50 percent from three and that's why they led 51-32 at the break. 


Cincinnati was extremely balanced in the 2nd half with all 5 starters scoring at least 6 points including an and-1 dunk in which Gary Clark grabbed a lob and threw it down with authority.  The defense was decent, but it could have been better and because of this Mick was probably pissed at halftime.


Unfortunately, Memphis shot lights out in the 2nd half. Literally the Tigers shot 60 percent form the field, but because the Bearcats built a 24 point lead the closest the Tigers got was within 7 points.  Dedric Lawson and Jeremiah Martin basically got whatever they wanted.  Martin and Lawson combined for 44 points.


Despite this run, this game was never in jeopardy. Kyle Washington led UC with 16 points, but the it was a total team effort. Evans had 15, Clark 13, and Caupain 12. Like I said....team effort.


These two teams are two of the best teams in the country in terms of taking care of the ball, but the Bearcats came out on top +6 in the turnover margin forcing the Tigers into 12 turnovers.  Memphis is also a pretty tough team to rebound against, but UC got 12 offensive rebounds and were +7 on the glass overall.


Cincinnati has struggled with free-throws this year, but they were a smooth 23-28 tonight and that's a big part why this game was never really in doubt. 


Tubby Smith is the 9th coach to win a national championship that Mick Cronin has beaten. Take that Tubby. 


Overall, it was a good game, but I'm pissed because I got the Cats at -13.5 so naturally they win by 13, but I can't complain.  UCF awaits UC next so until next time.


Gary Clark is a problem BTW...

Preview: Bearcats Take On A Desperate Memphis Team

On Thursday Night the Cincinnati Bearcats will get another opportunity to get a top 100 RPI win and improve it's NCAA profile as Tubby Smith and Memphis Tigers come to town.




MEET THE OPPONENT: Memphis Tigers




First off, the Tigers have been all but eliminated from an at large bid in the last couple of days. Sitting at 17-6 with SMU and Cincinnati still on the schedule it looked like Memphis could possible sneak into the tournament but the Tigers have lost 3/4 to put them at 18-9 on the year.


Tubby Smith's Tigers are one of the best passing teams in the nation as they average over 16 assists per game.  When you average many assists, that means you don't turn the ball over and Memphis is one top 20 in the nation in turnover margin. 




Memphis has two brothers who are really good. Dedric Lawson is their best player and he was the AAC Preseason Player of the Year along with Troy Caupain.  The 6'9 sophomore guard is averaging a double-double right now with 19.5 points and 10 rebounds a game.  Lawson was held in check at UConn last week scoring just 12 points and 7 rebounds.  Last year, UC and Memphis split a two game series; in the Memphis win Lawson had 20 points and 11 rebounds, in the UC win he was held to 7 points and 8 boards.




His brother, KJ Lawson is the teams 3rd leading scorer, but he has proved he can carry the team. KJ has scored 20+ points 5 times this year and is the teams leading 3 point shooter.  He is basically this teams Kevin Johnson except a little better and can rebound. 




One final player to look out for the Tigers is Markel Crawford. Crawford is the teams 2nd leading scorer and their best shooter from the field percentage wise. Crawford has been hot from the field lately going 59% from the field in the last three games. 




Memphis' main ball handler is Jeremiah Martin averaging over 4 assists per game.  The 4 man tandem of the Lawson boys, Crawford, and Martin play almost the entire game.  All of them play over 34 minutes a game.


Both teams are virtually the same in the rebounding category with both teams grabbing around 37 boards a game.  Kyle Washington and Gary Clark will have their work cut out for them to get 2nd chance points. 


Memphis gives up a lot of three balls.  In their last 4 games the Tigers have given up 28 made three's.  That is why I expect this game to perfect for Kevin Johnson and Jacob Evans, UC's best three point shooters.


Lastly, both teams are not going to turn the ball over so it should be a pretty clean played game. This will be a guard oriented game so look for a lot of jump shots, Memphis really doesn't have a big man, but they will still hold their own on the boards. 


As long as Jacob Evans, Troy Caupain and Kevin Johnson can get some shots to fall early, hopefully the that draws the Memphis defense out and we can kill them with Gary and Kyle in the 2nd half.  I think UC's home win streak will continue to 25 games as the Bearcats pick up the win 82-74 with Jacob Evans leading the way with 20 points.


Side note: The voice of the Bearcats Dan Hoard tweeted out that if UC can pick up a win this will be the 9th time Mick Cronin has beaten a coach with a national tittle. 


Also, a UC win could do even more good then we think.  The Bearcats need UCF to be ahead of Memphis in the final standings so Cincinnati can beat out SMU to get the #1 seed in the conference tournament.  Memphis is currently leading by a game over UCF in the latest AAC standings.

Here's What The Current Draw Looks Like For UC In The AAC Tournament

We are now just days away from March so it's time to start looking forward to the conference tournament.  IF the season ended today, here is what the current American Conference Tournament bracket would look like.

Some thoughts are that I'm hoping UC can avoid UConn at all costs just because they are UConn and they seem to get extremely lucky in March. This will be the 4th time they have played the American conference tournament and UConn has knocked us out every single time...including last years shit show.  Combine that with the fact that the tournament is in their backyard and plus they will have to win the conference tournament to go dancing is a recipe for disaster and I don't want any part of it.

The Bearcats are currently the #2 seed, but can overtake SMU for the #1 overall seed if Central Florida can overtake Memphis in the standings and give UC the tiebreaker over the Mustangs.  Memphis is 8-6, but still has to play SMU and Cincinnati again while UCF is 8-7 and still has to play Cincinnati.

Other than that this is a pretty good draw. Tulane/Tulsa should not be a problem even though Tulsa tested them in the first meeting, UC took care of them by 20 points on Saturday.  Houston could be a problem, but I still like UC chances in that one.  Just keep Rob Gray Jr. in check and that should be a pretty winnable game, but they too will probably need to win the tournament as well to make the NCAA, but I'll take Houston in March any day over UConn.

As far as I'm concerned nobody is going to beat SMU/Cincinnati so the Ponies and the Bearcats should meet in the finals on Selection Sunday in an empty arena in Storrs, Connecticut.