Wednesday, April 26, 2017

We Are Witnessing History In Bearcat Football Right Now

Luke Fickell has done so much for the UC football program in just 4 months on the job.  He has already doubled the amount of recruits that have signed within the Greater Cincinnati Area than Tommy Tuberville did and all these results are starting to show.



What people don't understand is that we could be witnessing the best UC football recruiting class ever and they have been playing football at UC since 1885. 

How Does Fickell Compare To Previous Years
The Bearcats currently have the 28th best recruiting class in the nation.  According to 247Sports.com which started recruiting rankings in 2002, Cincinnati has never had a recruiting class rank higher than 47th and that happened during Butch Jones' time here in 2011. The class Fickell has right know for 2018 is currently ranked 28, which would be the highest ever signed class in UC history. Here is what the classes ranked since 2002.

Rick Minter
2002: 76
2003: 97
Mark Dantonio
2004: 102
2005: 84
2006: 104
Brian Kelly
2007: 90
2008: 104
2009: 56
Butch Jones
2010: 53
2011: 47
2012: 51
Tommy Tuberville
2013: 63
2014: 64
2015: 68
2016: 74
2017: 63
Luke Fickell
2018: 28***(Currently)

The average UC class rank during this time has been around 80, so as you can see Coach Fickell is certainly exceeding expectations. He is doing something that UC's three best coaches in their football history, Dantonio, Kelly, and Jones could never do.


In a year and a half, Fickell has signed 3 four star recruits and 14 three star recruits. His average player rating is 85.7. Here is how that adds up to Dantonio, Kelly, and Jones.

For example, Dantionio's class had an average rank of 92nd. 247 Sports also grades the players you sign and Dantoio's players over three years had a rank of 75.1.  He signed 0 four star recruits and 6 three star recruits in his time at UC total. 

Brian Kelly was able to tab 3 four star recruits and 25 three star recruits. Despite this, all of his 4 star recruits and 13 of three recruits came in 2009, his final year, so Butch Jones also deserves a lot of credit. His average player rank was 77.2 and his average class rank was 83rd in the nation.  Kelly is arguably the best coach UC has ever seen as he went to 2 BCS bowls in his three years. 

From the best coach in UC history, we now go to the best recruiter in UC history with Butch Jones. Jones had the best average class rank of 50. Jones had brought in the best class in UC history in his first full year of recruiting in 2011 when they finished with the 47th best ranked class.  Jones had an average player rating of 82.6.  Over the course of three years, he signed 3 four star recruits, but he was able to lock up 49 three star recruits which is pretty amazing.

Lastly, we go to Tommy Tuberville, and this is where recruiter started to decline. He had an average class rank of 66 and this coming from a coach that said "recruiting doesn't really matter." In his 5 years of recruiting Tuberville never signed a 4 star recruit and virtually went to a place like Florida to do all his recruiting.  His average player rank was 81.6. The main reason UC recruiting class got up to 63rd is because of the job Luke Fickell did.

So, what I'm trying to say is that, Coach Fickell is doing something we have never expirenced with UC football before. It took Jones and Kelly three years to sign a three four star recruits, it took Fickell just one if you add up both the halves of recruiting he has been here before.

As I stated before, UC's class is currently ranked 28th for the 2018 class.  I do not expect them to finish in the top 30, but I firmly do believe they can get in the high thirties to mid forties range and sign the best class Cincinnati has ever had. We know Fickell can recruit, we'll see in the next couple years if he can translate his success onto the field.












Friday, April 21, 2017

The Bengals Got A Good Draw In The NFL Schedule Release

The NFL released every teams schedule on April 20th.  Last year, Cincinnati got a terrible draw and I knew another playoff appearance was not likely. If the Bengals do not succeed this year they may start to go into a rebuild, but they got some good news getting a pretty easy schedule. 

Sunday September 10th: vs. Baltimore 1:00 
Thursday September 14th vs. Houston 8:25
Sunday September 24th @ Green Bay 4:25
Sunday October 1st @ Cleveland 1:00
Sunday October 8th vs. Buffalo 1:00
**BYE**
Sunday October 22nd @ Pittsburgh 1:00
Sunday October 29th vs. Indianapolis 1:00
Sunday November 5th @ Jacksonville 1:00
Sunday November 12th @ Tennessee 1:00
Sunday November 19th @ Denver 4:25
Sunday November 26th vs. Cleveland 1:00 
Monday December 4th vs. Pittsburgh 8:30
Sunday December 10th vs. Chicago 1:00
Sunday December 17th @ Minnesota 1:00
Sunday December 24th vs. Detroit 1:00
Sunday December 31st @ Baltimore 1:00

THOUGHTS:

The Bengals play just 4 teams who had a better than .500 record last year (Houston, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, & Detroit.)  They have the 29th ranked strength of schedule. Basically, only 3 teams have an easy schedule than them. 

Cincinnati has a way easier start to the year this year than they did last year when they went on the road to New York and Pittsburgh to start the season.  This is the first time since 2009 the Bengals will open up at home and it comes against a Baltimore team who has been average at best the last couple of years. They haven't had their first two games at home since 1983. 

Marvin Lewis and his team were given just 2 prime time games this probably because of their poor record last year. Cincinnati did improve in prime time last year and both games are at home so that should help.  They do not have a Sunday nigh football games this year.  12/16 games will be played at 1:00 and they do not travel over to London this year. 

The Bengals have three straight road games against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Denver. This should be their toughest part of the schedule. I would be happy with taking 1 of these games, but anything more would be a bonus. The Bengals have never won at Denver in the regular season. 

Nobody really knows what to expect from the Bengals this season yet, but I have the Bengals going 9-7, which probably doesn't get a playoff spot. The only games, I don't think the Bengals really have a chance in is when they go on to the road against Green Bay and Pittsburgh. I fully expect Cincinnati to be in the wildcard race coming into the final three games against Minnesota, Detroit, and Baltimore. For the AFC North, I think they go 3-3, beating Cleveland twice, splitting with Baltimore and losing both games against Pittsburgh. 




Thursday, April 13, 2017

Power Rankings: NL Central Managers


A lot of people say the Manager has no impact on the game, but that could not be further from the truth. In the playoffs I am a firm believer that the Manager decides the ball game when he goes to the bullpen and who he brings in.  Here are my Power Rankings for the NL Central Managers.

1. Joe Maddon: This is only his third season with the club, but he has been the skipper of 3 other teams in MLB.  Maddon inherited a solid Chicago team and with that means lofty expectations. Not only has Maddon met those expectations, but he has flown past them.  With postseason appearances in his first two years, and a World Series last year, Maddon is a top the NL Central by a pretty large margin.  Maddon is currently 201-124 with the Cubs and is a former 3x manager of the year, twice with the Rays. Maddon has a lot of experience which has helped him a lot as well. As much as it pains me to say this, but Chicago is primed for another deep run this year.

2. Mike Matheny: Tier of the NL Central starts here with Matheny of St. Louis and Clint Hurdle of the Pirates. Both are on the decline, but Matheny gets the nod because of his deep playoff runs. Matheny went to the World Series in 2013. It became clear that Matheny was the right choice after his first two seasons were very good and that's hard to due, because he was following Hall of Famer, Tony La Russa.  After missing the playoffs last year, some Cards fans have grown increasingly frustrated with him and the questionable moves that seemed to work earlier in his career, but have haven't worked recently. A terrible start to 2017 season certainly doesn't help either. Matheny was a former catcher so he knows the game of baseball and I think he may still have some upside, but he is slowly losing fan support in St. Louis.

3. Clint Hurdle: He had the most success anyone has ever had with the Rockies, but like Matheny, Hurdle is also on the decline. After 20 straight seasons of losing, Hurdle finally had the Pirates back to the postseason where they would beat our Redlegs in the 2013 Wildcard game. Unfortunately, Clint would make the Postseason 2013, 14, & 15 and that Wildcard win would stand as his only Postseason win with the club.  In 2013 and 2015, the Pirates won 95 games, so one playoff one is not what the Pirates were looking for. In 2015 they one 88 games and were once again eliminated in the wildcard game. Personally, I think the Pirates will go into a full rebuild mode after this season, so Clint make be making his way down this list.

4. Bryan Price: Unless you are a Reds fan you probably do not know much about Price. He was considered one of the best pitching coaches in the league back in 2010-2013 when the Reds rotation was one of the best. Once Dusty Baker was fired, Cincinnati went ahead and promoted Price. Despite a pretty embarrassing record in his first two years, the Reds were in rebuilding mode. Though 2017 is young, Price has made some solid moves out of the Bullpen and has sent the Reds off to a 7-2 start which ties the best record in the MLB.  The jury is still out on Price, but for right now he is best known for his rant in which he dropped 77 F Bombs to reporters.  There is potential for Price, but the picture will be a lot more clear 2-3 years.

5. Craig Counsell: I had too google who the Brewers manager was, so Craig isn't making too many moves early on in his career. For the record, I do remember him as a player, I just had no clue he managed the Brewers. Like Price, this is also Counsell's third season with the club, and also boast a pretty bad record. Also like Price, he hasn't been given a solid team yet so a lot is unknown about him.  Despite this, the Brewers currently have one of the best Farm system in baseball right now, so we could be learning about his managing skills in the near future.


Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Is It Fair That Cincinnati's Women Basketball Team Will Play In A 1,000 Seat High School Gym?

A lot of question were raised after the Cincinnati Enquire published an article noting that leaders were calling out UC officials for demoting the women to St. Ursula's gym.  The gym holds just 1,000 people and it will host the UC women while 5/3rd arena goes under renovation.  Some observers are saying this violates Title IX law.  Here is what the gym looks like and it only has seats on this side. 


This could not be more false.  It may not be what the women what, but this is the only choice at this point.  This was not a "sexist" decision.  Last year, the women's team had an average of 651 people show up to their games.  They had a TOTAL of  9,771 people come the entire season.  The men's team had 9,000+ in numerous games this year. The attendance for the women's was more this at 800 something, but I could not find an exact number.  Towards the end of the year, Cincinnati's men's team was selling out their 13,000 seat arena almost ever game.  The men's team had roughly 11 times the average attendance the women had this year having an average of 9,865.


The attendance for the men's team is going to be hire no matter what, but the reason for such a big gap is because of the women's team play. The women's team went 16-14 this year, but that was their best season in a long time. It's great that girls are finally getting the chance to win some games, but before this year, the last winning season UC women's basketball had was 2006 when they went 15-14. They haven't made the tournament since 2002.  Of the 32 conferences, 23 of them had a higher average of attendance then the women's team this year. The team fits right around the Big West who had an average of 775 people at each game. The AAC had an average of 2,009.


By the way this was not planned. It's not like the administrations was planning to throw the team in a high school gym.  NKU's BB&T arena just had to many conflicts to host the men and the women's teams.  If there was not as many conflicts then the women would be playing over in Northern Kentucky as well.  UC explored many other options, but this was the best available according to the Cincinnati Enquire. UC officials also said that they can make up the difference by giving women more media coverage and better travel accommodations.


Another note, this is just one year. Next year the women will be playing in the nicest arena in the conference right along side the men. So in no way is this a permanent home. 


Although it will be tough for the seniors who won't have their last game at 5/3rd arena, it will at least be a sellout and a louder environment. They are used to an empty 5/3rd arena, so this will be a change to see a packed gym.


In the end, the women's team is getting better and has a pretty good recruiting class coming in.  In one year nobody will be talking about this because both teams will be playing in a great arena, but for now, I see nothing wrong with this decision.  I would have liked something a little better, but it's pretty hard to find a gym that's not being used when the season starts in 6 months.  The women's volleyball team will also play games here next year.











Monday, April 3, 2017

Some Positive and Negative Take Away's From The Reds Opening Day Loss To The Phillies


Opening Day 2017 is in the books and the Reds fell to the Phils 4-3.  There were some positives to take away from the game, but also some negatives.

POSITIVES

Bullpen: The Reds had the major leagues worst bullpen last year, but they showed signs of improvement in this one. They gave up one run in 4 1/3 innings which is something I can live with. In these innings the Pen gave up just three hits after a pretty poor outing by the starter Scott Feldman.

Michael Lorenzen was throwing some gas reaching up to 99 at one point. He didn't give up a hit, along with Astin and Iglesias who also did not allow a hit. Iglesias was a starter last year and I think he will eventually get back there.  He had an injury last year so the Reds are keeping him in the Bullpen this year. Drew Storen gave up one hit, but was solid nonetheless.

Blake Wood was the only reliever to give up a run, but it was of off a line drive that could have been caught.  Wood came back and threw a scoreless inning.

Scooter Gennett: He is a local kid so it was pretty cool to see him do well. He came in the game and replaced Peraza at 2nd.  He crushed a line drive but it was caught and ended up being a double play, but that was just bad luck.  His 2nd time around he hit and opposite field home run so he is seeing the ball well to start the year.

Adam Duvall and Jose Peraza: These guys picked right up where they ended last year.  Both went 2/4 today.

NEGATIVES:

Hitting With Runners In Scoring Position: The Reds missed chances early.  They had the bases loaded with zero outs in the 3rd and had bases loaded with 1 out in the 4th. They came away with just one run total. They left Billy Hamilton stranded on third as well late in the game.

Scott Feldman: I'll give credit to Feldman who came back after giving up 3 runs in the first two innings.  Feldman responded by striking out 5 straight and not allowing a run the final 2 2/3, but Cincinnati needed a better start. I think he could be a solid 4th or 5th starter, but I argued from day one Brandon Finnegan should of gotten the start.

Bryan Price: Why do we have 9 relievers on the Opening Day roster? We ended up having to take a hot Jose Peraza out of the game so the pitcher spot could be moved back becuase we didn't have a solid pinch hitter left.


Saturday, April 1, 2017

The Pro's And Con's of Adding Wichita State To The American Conference

Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel wrote that Wichita State is in serious talks to join the AAC in the 2017-18 season. I broke down how this could be, both a great idea and a not so good one.  ESPN's Andy Katz reported that if the American offers Wichita, then the Shockers will accept the invitation. A decision by the AAC is expected soon.

Pro's

Separation
Adding the Shockers would certainly give the AAC some separation.  Although, the AAC won't be apart of the "Power 6" brand I think this would give them the edge as the best "mid major".  The only conferences really close are the A 10 and maybe the WCC.  The American would certainly produce better top teams than the A 10, but I think the Atlantic 10 has a little more depth, at least this year (the aac had a really down year).

Quality
This one is a given. Wichita State just provides a better win for Cincinnati and the rest of the league. At least for know.  The American has gotten a bad draw numerous times on Selection Sunday in the league's short history.

Geographically

Wichita is in Kansas, so it isn't too far off geographically.  They would have conference members in Oklahoma in Tulsa, and SMU and Houston in Texas.  Here is what the map of all the schools currently looks like.
Image result for american athletic conference map

12 Teams
The AAC went to 12 in football and it makes sense to do it in basketball as well.  Here is what the new AAC tournament bracket would look like with 12 teams.  It basically means that the top 4 teams will get byes instead of the top 5.
Cons

What If Marshall Leaves
In the past, Marshall has remained loyal to WSU, but it only takes one school at any given time. Money talks a big game, and IF Marshall were to ever leave then Wichita might fall into the ranks of Tulsa or any other mediocre team in the AAC.  Luckily, I don't think Marshall will leave.

Less Money
Allegedly, ESPN will not increase the money the AAC gets in its TV deal.  The AAC Commissioner is currently scheduled to meet with ESPN soon.

UConn Fans
For some reason, Huskies fans seem to think this confirms them going to the Big East. UConn people on twitter are saying that Wichita is UConn's replacement. I'll be damned if they get into a power conference before UC does.