3. UC Must Shoot 50% From The Field.
Cincinnati shot 63% from the field in their win over Kansas State over Friday and they need much of the same tonight. UC isn't going to be able to score 55-60 points and win this game so they need a good shooting performance. When the Bearcats score 70 points this season they are 17-1 and you better believe they need at least 70 points to win tonight. UCLA has score at least 75 points every single game this season.
If UC is going to shoot 50% then they probably need big games from at least 3 of these 4 names: Jacob Evans, Kyle Washington, Gary Clark, and Troy Caupain. Against Kansas State these guys were 22-34 or 65% and combined for 63 points. I am fully expecting big games from Gary Clark and Kyle Washington with how week UCLA is inside. Hopefully, Troy or Jacob can remain hot from last game as well.
In UCLA's 4 losses this season every team that beat them has shot at least 45%.
2. Second Chance Points
UCLA gets 74% of the opponents misses. While Cincy is able to collect 35% of their own misses, so the Bearcats are going to have some opportunities to score on some offensive rebounds. Cincinnati won't be able to out shoot UCLA so Washignton/Clark/Brooks need to play hard on the glass tonight.
In all four of their losses this season, UCLA has lost the rebounding battle. The Bearcats are currently 7th in the nation this year in 2nd chance. UCLA is 215th in second chance. Because they have so much shooters such as Lonzo Ball, TJ Leaf, and Bryce Alford it's important to hold them to one and done if they do miss some shots.
1. Tempo/Pace
These teams could not be more different. UCLA wants to run as the Bruins average more than 76 possessions per game. Cincinnati is 325th in the nation with just 67 possesions a game so the Bearcats have got to slow this game down. Mick Cronin said "Look at what happened to Kentucky when they tried to run with them." UCLA beat Kentucky at Rupp arena 97-92.
If the Bearcats do manage to slow the game down then it could be a difference maker. UCLA #1 in the nation in efficiency scoring 1.190 points per possession each game. The Bearcats are #25 in efficiency scoring putting up 1.105 points per possession. For UC it's simply, limit the amount of possessions and limit the amount of scoring. That is easier said than done obviously.
UC can do this by not having any live ball turnovers. Live ball turnovers will lead to easy transition buckets for the Bruins. You can live with dead ball turnovers, but you just cannot let UCLA run. Mick Cronin's team must play smart. Good news is, UC is pretty good at taking care of the ball.
Also, this is virtually an away game for the Bearcats tonight. They won't have many more than the 350 of allotted tickets they were given so they need to keep their composure.
Games Notes:
Tip Off: 9:40
Where: Golden 1 Center. Sacramento California
TV: TBS
Spread: UCLA -4
Over/Under: 155
Series Record: Cincinnati Leads 2-1
Winner Plays #2 Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
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