Selection Sunday did not go as planned. Things got started with the Bearcats getting dominated by SMU. They got a 6 seed which I thought was a little harsh, but they face either Wake Forest or Kansas State, who I think are two pretty solid teams. Things get worse, if UC wins then they get UCLA...in California.....or Kent State! I went ahead and looked at some stats and who I though UC matched up better with, the Demon Deacons or the Wildcats?
WHO DID THE BEARCATS STRUGGLE WITH
Good defensive teams that rebound. That is the definition of Central Florida and SMU. Rhode Island, SMU, and UCF are all in the top 30 in defensive efficiency. Butler was number 49 on the list according to KenPom.com. Wake is 160 on that list and Kansas State is #50. Both teams are in the top 25 in offensive efficiency, but Cincinnati has handled good offensive teams such as Iowa State, Memphis, and Xavier (when they were healthy.)
Height and rebounding was another factor in those games. Everyone on SMU is between 6-4" and 6-8" so all their starters can rebound. Central Florida had 7"6 Tacko Fall so nothing was ever available in the paint. Rhode Island is also in the top 20% of college basketball in rebounding. Butler really isn't that tall. Wake Forest is 118th in the nation in rebounding caompared to UC at 107th. Both get a little over 37 boards a game. The Demon Deacons have a great big man in John Collins. The 6"10 forward 9.8 rebounds a game and 19 points. He could be a big problem in the middle just like Fall. Kansas State is terrible ranking in the 300 hundreds in rebounding. This is the teams that UC has feasted on this year. Nobody on their team gets more than 6 rebounds.
Three point shooting teams have killed UC all year. Rhode Island and Butler shot 40% from behind the Arc, UCF hit 35% of three's and today SMU was 53% from downtown today. Sometimes the Bearcats struggle around the perimeter. Wake Forest is a very solid three point shooting team. They shoot 39% from three point land this year which is good enough for 34th in the nation. Keyshawn Woods shoots it at 46% while Brandon Childress and Mitchell Wilbekin both shoot it over 40% from deep. The Demon Deacons have three more players who are at least 35% from three this year, they can really stroke it as a team. That is why they are so good on the offensive side of the ball. Kansas State Kansas State is 36% from three this year. Dean Wade is their best shooter at 40% from three while 4 other players for the Wildcats are in the high 30's. UC shoots the three at a 35% clip and Jacob Evans is the only player shooting it at over 40%.
The Bearcats have been one of the best in turnover margin this entire year. Kansas State is not a very good team in terms of taking care of the ball. They average 13+ turnovers a game this season while Wake Forest under 11 turnovers a game this year. Cincinnati turns it over 9 times a game.
Matchup wise, I do think Kyle Washington would have trouble with Wake Forest big man John Collins. Washington did not play good today during SMU and we saw how that went. Bryant Crawford is sophomore guard who is Wake Forest's version of Troy Caupain, he puts up 13 a game and shares the ball with 5.5 assists a game.
A big reason why I would like to see us face Kansas State because we can go into Gary Clark and Kyle Washington and just dominate inside and crash the glass for 2nd chance points. K-State reminds me of Houston who Cincinnati handled easily this year. They are a team with good guards who struggle inside. With Wake Forest we probably will have to rely on our guards to make a couple shots and even though the Bearcats are a lot better on offence it still goes south like it did today or against UCF, where the guards such as Caupain/Evans/Johnson did not make anything.
Both teams have shown they are capable of beating some quality teams. Wake Forest owns wins over Louisville, Virginia Tech, and Miami. Kansas State has two wins over Baylor who I think is overrated and really solid win over West Virginia.
We all know that during March you throw the stats out the window, but I really do think that Wake Forest would be an extremely challenging game for UC with the dominate play of John Collins and the guards that they have.
Wake and Kansas State will meet up on Tuesday night at 9:45 in Dayton.
No comments:
Post a Comment